“As long as this dispute continues, the impact on the economy and inflation numbers will be consistent,” Mohtashami composed today. “At some point, the bond market will be telling us the economy is getting hit hard, however since right now, it’s not doing that, nor does it believe this conflict will last long.”
Jobs market’
slows to a crawl’The Federal Reserve’s rates of interest policymakers are set to meet next week, although interest rates traders are almost consentaneous that no changes remain in store. In January, the Fed held benchmark rates stable at a series of 3.5% to 3.75%, snapping a streak of three successive rate cuts.
February information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Data showed ongoing softening in the labor market as nonfarm payroll jobs fell by 92,000 last month. And revisions for December and January can be found in lower by a total of 69,000 tasks.
“The tasks report is, in lots of methods, a real estate report in disguise. Employment patterns eventually determine consumers’ capability and willingness to purchase or offer homes,” said Jason Waugh, president of Coldwell Lender Affiliates.
However Waugh went on to say that rate of interest volatility is less about the labor report and more about the spike in oil prices resulting from the dispute in the Middle East. He echoed Mohtashami by concluding that the near-term direction of rates will be affected by duration of the war. The longer it lasts, the most likely rates will stay higher and work as a headwind for home purchasers and sellers.
“For mortgage and realty specialists, this is a minute for stable, localized assistance: remain grounded in what’s happening with employers in your neighborhood, assistance customers specify their spending plan comfort zone and take a proactive approach with rate-lock methods and timing. Preparation and clarity will place customers to act with confidence,” Waugh said.
Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and primary economic expert for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), stated that “job development slowed to a crawl” throughout 2025. Even sectors like healthcare that published positive development saw conditions compromise in February. He indicated a somewhat greater unemployment rate of 4.4% and somewhat greater wage growth of 3.8% as data indicate watch.
“Although this month’s job numbers were weaker than anticipated, we do not anticipate the FOMC to cut rates any time quickly given the increased inflation risk,” Fratantoni said. “MBA is adhering to its projection that home loan rates will stay in a variety of 6% to 6.5% over the forecast horizon.”
Darkening skies for home sales?
On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales for February were at a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 4.09 million. That was a 1.7% boost from January however a 1.4% reduction from February 2025.
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economic expert for Bright MLS, stated that sales through the first two months of 2026 are dragging in 2015’s rate. Customers have yet to respond meaningfully to the most affordable mortgage rates in more than 3 years.
“Although there is bottled-up need in the market, there appears to be little urgency on the part of either purchasers or sellers,” Sturtevant stated. “While sales ticked up seasonally in between January and February, financial unpredictability, and potentially winter weather condition kept more buyers from entering the marketplace last month. An absence of stock is also a restriction.”
Zillow senior economic expert Orphe Divounguy stated that his business’s 2026 forecast stays sunny in comparison to 2025. Zillow is calling for a “modest boost” of 4.2 million existing home sales and cost growth of 7%– up considerably from 3.8% gratitude in 2015.
“Home mortgage rates moved lower at the start of the year, and incomes continued to increase faster than housing expenses,” Divounguy stated. “Although price remains extended, the improvement in real estate cost over the past year is an advantage for prospective buyers and sellers.”