War Demonstration: Bond Market Edition
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 4:38 PM
War Demonstration: Bond Market Edition
There’s no quicker method to categorize the movement we have actually seen over the previous 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran– not due to the fact that it’s a sentient being that appreciates violence, however rather due to the fact that the ramifications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not terrific. There weren’t even any major advancements today– just a couple of newswires that recommended no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are rapidly back up to early Feb levels, however the selling is being led by the short end of the curve with 2yr yields at the highest levels in more than 6 months.
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- Structure Allows (Jan)
- 1.376 M vs 1.41 M f’cast, 1.455 M prev
- Continued Claims (Feb)/ 28
- 1,850 K vs 1850K f’cast, 1868K prev
- Housing starts number mm (Jan)
- 1.487 M vs 1.35 M f’cast, 1.404 M prev
- Out Of Work Claims (Mar)/ 07
- 213K vs 215K f’cast, 213K prev
- Trade Gap (Jan)
- -54.50 B vs $-66.6 B f’cast, $-70.3 B prev
- Structure Allows (Jan)
08:30 AM
Approximately the same overnight. No reaction to econ data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.223
11:33 AM
Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point. 10yr up 2.7 bps at 4.254.
02:03 PM
Back to weakest levels after an extremely modest effort to recuperate. MBS down a quarter point once again and 10yr up 2.6 bps at 4.253
03:29 PM
More offering around the 3pm close. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 4.3 bps at 4.27
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