The bond market does not appear like it can catch a break as long as war continues Iran. If it’s not oil, it’s fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary ripple effects that bode ill for the set earnings sector. Yes, the implied economic fallout would help offset the inflationary impulses, however inadequate for rates to make down progress just yet. Bonds will need to get past the point of prices in another huge inflation reckoning for that to happen. Until then, down progress will be tough to sustain. This morning’s headlines (which include more reports of mines in shipping channels and a Trump remark that said military objectives were more crucial than oil prices) have pressed the June Fed rate cut outlook to its worst levels in a year. 10yr yields are easily back up and over the 4.20% technical level.
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