Without any huge escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil costs trickled only decently greater during Asian trading hours and started to recuperate during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly pattern undamaged with some assistance from Trump remarks that suggested a restricted timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of a linear trend this morning and less of a volatile response to any private newswire. Econ data is in the back seat to geopolitical events. The exact same will normally hold true for Wednesday’s Fed announcement, although volatility is at least possible thanks to the dot plot and press conference (rate cut = 0% possibility).
NOTE: you will never ever see a true 0%chance in terms of likelihood suggested by futures contracts due to the structure of that market, but 99% = 100% and 1% = 0% for all practical purposes.
< img src="http://a.mbslive.net/assets/69b815890620ad4c4058d89d/69b815890620ad4c4058d89d.png" alt="20260316 mopens.png"/ >