Weekly pending sales Pending home sales information provides a week-to-week point of view, though outcomes can be affected by vacations and short-term variations. The last 5 weeks have been favorable in our weekly pending sales data. We shall see if that moves forward, especially now that rates struck an annual high and they might continue higher this week.Weekly pending sales normally take 30-60 days to strike the sales information. Generally, home mortgage rates above 6.64%and breaking over 7% actually impact the information. Under 6.25%is where the sweet area has actually remained in the previous a number of years, omitting short-term variables out of the formula. Weekly pending sales recently over the
last two years: 2026: 71,230 2025: 68,726 Home mortgage purchase application information Purchase application information is a positive information line: the development here leads home sales approximately 30-90 days out, and recently we saw 12% year-over-year growth with 1% week-to-week growth. Weekly development cooled recently and this week we are at danger of an unfavorable weekly print. This does happen often when you have back-to-back weeks of rising rates.
For this information line, what I truly value is at least 12-14 weeks of favorable weekly growth. If you can get this along with year-over-year development, we have something legit, for sure. For 2026, weekly has actually revealed positive year-over-year development. The week-to-week data has been positive; nevertheless, that’s much easier to do with rates under 6.25%.
Here’s 2026 up until now:
- 5 positive week-over-week prints
- 4 unfavorable week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year development
- 10 weeks of positive year-over-year development
10-year yield and home mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I prepared for the
- following varieties: Home mortgage rates in between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield varying in between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran dispute started, I discussed how I would be surprised if it continued past March 21 since of the economic implications of war, including higher energy and input costs. Friday, March 20, the bond market took the dispute more seriously and, for the very first time because September of 2025, the 10-year yield closed above 4.31%. The bond market has actually now evaluated all rate cuts and is now pricing in a rate trek in 2026.
This week is crucial to me since we now have a clear path to the 10-year yield striking 4.60 %– the high-end of my forecast. If this conflict continues and aggravates, bond yields will increase and more rate hikes will be priced in.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a positive story for real estate in 2026, reducing mortgage-rate volatility, and are close to normal levels. Home loan spreads got somewhat worse when bond yields were falling in February, as the spreads were trying to make mortgage rates less unstable with falling yields. Now they have actually gotten worse with this dispute as well.For now, the spreads are still really favorable, but their improvement is the only thing keeping rates from being over 7%again.< img src="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/28166651/thumbnail"width="100%"alt="visualization"/ > Historically, mortgage spreads have varied from 1.60%to 1.80%. Recently’s spreads closed at 1.97%. Again, Friday’s single-day spread is not represented in this weekly information. However, I wanted to show this week’s rates
relative to the worst levels of the spreads over the past three years, with the 10-year yield at its existing level. If we had the worst levels of home loan
- spreads in 2023, home mortgage rates would be 7.67 %today, not 6.53% If we had the worst
- levels of 2024, home mortgage rates would be 7.29%today. If we had the worst levels of 2025
- , home mortgage rates would be 7.10 %today. Weekly real estate inventory information Housing inventory
ought to now be starting its yearly
seasonal increase. Nevertheless, the development rate of inventory has actually truly slowed from last year’s peak levels, to the point that we might see some unfavorable year-over-year prints in our weekly stock. Still, we are still far from the unhealthy levels of 2021, 2022 and 2023. We have actually gone from 33% year-over-year growth in inventory at the highest point in 2025, to 6.35% last week. In the past, inventory growth got amid greater rates, softening demand and increasing year-over-year brand-new listings. New listings information is still negative year over year, however for this week, it’s a great start to the spring seasonal increase. Weekly stock change: (March 13-March 20): Stock rose from 697,251 to 705,633 Very same week last
- year:( March 14-March 21): Stock increased from 655,625 to 668,155
New listings information
New listings information has also been somewhat disappointing this year. While I still believe we can get a few weeks over 80,000, the year-over-year growth rate has been somewhat unfavorable for weeks now.
I am still wishing for the new listings data to range between 80,000 and 100,000 each week during the seasonal peak durations, as it did from 2013-2019. For context, during the real estate bubble crash, brand-new listings varied from 250,000 to 400,000 weekly for several years.
Here is recently’s new listings data for the previous two years:
- 2026: 68,016
- 2025: 69,701
Price-cut percentage Usually, about one-third of homes go through price decreases before they sell, reflecting the dynamic nature of the real estate market. As home mortgage rates and inventory increase together, the portion of cost cuts boosts.
In my 2026 price projection, I had an unfavorable 0.62% require the year nationally.However, home loan rates were lower than I thought they would be at the start of the year and the FHFA’s revealed purchase of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads lower than I anticipated. I thought we would see that enhancement later on in the year. So, before the conflict began, my forecast looked incorrect for 2026. Now, if rates head higher and remain greater for longer, I do have a shot at my call being more appropriate. Still, the price cut portion is below in 2015 at this time. The price-cut percentage for last week:
The week ahead: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran Nothing matters this coming week however Iran
. Last week we broke a key level on the 10-year and the whole fiscal year is now being shaped by higher rates, greater inflation and no rate cuts. In reality, rate hikes are now back in the conversation for 2026. If this dispute gets worse, we can get more rate walkings priced in for 2026, and no Fed member will discuss rate cuts unless we go into a hardcore recession. So in the meantime, the Iran dispute is shaping what the rest of 2026 will appear like for the economy and the real estate market.