Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 4:28 PM
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with strong– in some cases puzzling– gains in February followed by a relative thrashing in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are producing more volatility than typical at 4pm ET, but up till that point, 10yr yields had actually rallied approximately 8bps. Those gains were sustained by headlines that talked to potential de-escalation in Iran– something that’s easy enough to confirm by examining the matching drop in oil costs and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct turning point in the war.
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- Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jan)
- 1.2% vs 1.3% f’cast, 1.4% prev
- CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Jan)
- -0.1% vs– f’cast, -0.1% prev
- FHFA Home Cost Index m/m (Jan)
- 0.1% vs 0.1% f’cast, 0.1% prev
- FHFA Home Prices y/y (Jan)
- 1.6% vs– f’cast, 1.8% prev
- Task Openings
- 6.882 m vs 6.92 m f’cast, 7.24 m prev
- Task Stops (lower = much better for bonds)
- Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jan)
09:18 AM
Reasonably stronger overnight. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 5bps at 4.302
12:50 PM
Near finest levels with MBS up more than 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.3 bps at 4.298
01:53 PM
MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.2 bps at 4.31
04:12 PM
Off the very best levels after quarter-end rebalancing trades. MBS up only 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down only 3 bps at 4.322
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