Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Mon, Mar 9 2026, 2:55 PM
Big Big Salami in Oil Costs and Bond Yields
There was no rejecting the spillover from oil rate volatility to the bond market today, even if it took quite a lot of the previous to move the latter. At its pinnacle, the oil surge was the biggest everyday move on record at over $26/bbl (simply over a 28% jump). This translated to a 10yr yield jump of practically 8bps to start the overnight session. However things were currently reversing course rapidly by the time European trading began. Then, by the start of U.S. trading, 10yr yields were already back listed below 4.18% and continued to fall back to the same levels at 4.13% by 2pm ET. The turnaround practically perfectly traced the reversal in oil rates.
08:19 AM
Sharply weaker overnight with oil rate spike. High yields of 4.21% in 10yr. Now up just 4.2 bps at 4.171. MBS down simply under a quarter point.
10:48 AM
Off the weakest levels. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.8 bps at 4.157
01:55 PM
MBS back to the same. 10yr also the same at 4.13
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