GTA new home sales aren’t out of the woods yet– however the low-rise market is making a strong case for optimism.For the second
successive month, single-family home sales in the Greater Toronto Location surpassed the 10-year average, buoyed by the enhanced HST rebate program presented in April 2026. According to new data from BILD and market intelligence company Altus Group, 830 single-family homes sold in the GTA in Might– 26% above the segment’s 10-year average, and a substantial dive from the exact same month in 2025.
The more comprehensive picture is more complex. Total new home sales across the GTA reached 1,023 units in May– a meaningful rebound from last May’s record low, however still 57% listed below the total 10-year average of 2,353 units for the month.The space is almost totally attributable to the condominium sector. Just 193 condo apartment units offered in Might, landing 89%below the 10-year average. The HST refund hasn’t moved the needle for high-rise for two structural factors: much of the existing stock is connected to legacy prices that makes refund eligibility difficult, and new high-rise jobs are unlikely to meet the program’s”substantially completed”requirement within its specified window. Only one new condo task has actually introduced in the GTA up until now in 2026, according to Altus Group Research Supervisor Edward Jegg.On pricing, the benchmark for brand-new apartment homes held at$1,029,489– what BILD describes as an obvious price floor. New single-family homes benchmarked at $1,427,543, down 5.2 %over the previous 12 months. Both figures are gross costs and don’t reflect any HST rebate savings.Inventory dipped below 20,000 systems for the 3rd time in 24 months, landing at 18,763 in May– 13,138 condo apartment or condo units and 5,625 single-family dwellings. That exercises to 32 months of supply at the existing sales rate, though BILD warns that figure will compress quickly as sales volume increases.There is a small catch inside the single-family story, however. May sales came in somewhat below April– and BILD COO Justin Sherwood points to sticking around unpredictability around how the refund will
be administered as the most likely offender. Buyers who certify aren’t always leaving; they’re waiting on answers. Sherwood has actually been clear that dealing with those information is what stands between the existing momentum and something more sustained.In Simcoe County, the pattern held: 56 single-family new homes offered in May, with a weighted average cost of$1,143,359. No condo house sales were recorded in the region.