The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate stays over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month back. The good news is that rates recuperated well over the weekend.
By Friday afternoon, the average rate was 6.64%– the highest given that August 2025– contributing to a trend of rapid upward motion throughout March. While there’s no other way to know if a bigger picture corner has been turned, it’s a success in the short term.
Significantly, the underlying bond market broke from its normal correlation with oil rates today. The latter has experienced serious volatility due to the Iran war, and bonds have actually been impacted due to inflation implications. It’s prematurely to identify if that’s taking place for temporary factors relating to the calendar more than underlying events and economic fundamentals.