After publishing a decent recovery from 9-month highs the other day, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to recuperate towards somewhat higher levels today. In truth, when lending institutions released their preliminary rates this morning, the average 30yr fixed rate was certainly moderately higher.
But quickly after 1pm ET, news broke concerning additional development in the Iran war peace process. Much like many similar headlines of late, this one might easily unwind in the coming hours, however the bond market reacted positively sufficient to eliminate the day’s losses.
In general, when bonds are acquiring, rates move lower. Today’s intraday gains enabled lenders to “re-price” to lower rates. The average lending institution was just somewhat lower than the other day’s newest levels as of 3pm ET.
On the plus side, lower is lower, which’s a triumph for today. On the other hand, rates are still extremely near to long-term highs in the bigger image. Furthermore, and to reiterate a point above, we have actually seen these sorts of news stories come and go with markets eventually erasing the initial relocation after the next set of headings press the narrative back in the other instructions.
Bottom line: this was a decent intraday present, however we’re not viewing it as a conclusive pivot point in rate trends.