After hitting 5.99% as just recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed home mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the typical lender today– the highest they’ve been because September 3rd, 2025.
The entire month of March has been painful for numerous corners of the monetary market and home loan rates are not immune. The Iran war is the underlying driver as rising fuel costs require international central banks to rapidly reassess inflation expectations and the policy rate outlook.
As we enjoy repeating, an actual hike/cut of the Fed Funds Rate is of no issue to home loan rates by the time it actually occurs. However if Fed hike/cut expectations are altering rapidly, mortgage rates will usually be changing rapidly in the same instructions.
That’s what’s occurring today– not simply for the Fed, but also for the European Central Bank and others. The globally-coordinated hawkishness on the rate outlook causes additional volatility in the rate market for a range of factors. Investors significantly believe that there is additional discomfort that needs to play out even if the war were to end today. That does not imply rates can’t bounce for a day or two, however it does mean sustained enhancement back to February’s levels is extremely not likely in the near term.