Up till roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had actually been selling gradually throughout, striking 4.443% by 6:45 am. Then at 7:04 am, newswires suggested “talks” in between the US and Iran, and a 5 day ceasefire of sorts. Yields and oil plunged quickly. Stocks rallied. The 10yr dipped as low as 4.308% before bouncing. The bounce coincided with reports that there were no talks, but yet other newswires suggested those talks took place through intermediaries and not straight with Iran. In any case, the 5 day moratorium on United States strikes in Iran is worth something to the market.
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