Weekly pending sales Pending home sales information provides a week-to-week viewpoint, though results can be impacted by vacations and short-term variations, such as the huge winter storm in January. We were revealing year-over-year development at the start of the year, and then the snowstorm slowed things down.
Now that all the snow data is gone, we have 3 straight weeks of year-over-year growth, which need to be the case considered that home loan rates have actually been under 6.25% all year long.
Weekly pending sales last week over the last 2 years:
- 2026: 66,127
- 2025: 63,508
Home mortgage purchase application information Purchase application information is a positive data line: the growth here leads sales roughly 30-90 days out, and recently we saw 10% year-over-year development with 6.1% week-to-week development.
For this information line, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of favorable weekly development. If you can get this in addition to year-over-year development, we have something legit for sure. For 2026, every week has actually revealed favorable year-over-year growth. The last three weeks, combined, have actually averaged 10% year-over-year growth, which if this continues, need to offer us a couple hundred thousand more home sales this year versus last year.
As you can see in the chart below, we do have some seasonality in the weekly data.Here’s 2026 up until now: 3 favorable week-over-week
- prints 4 negative week-to-week prints 1 flat
- week-to-week print 5
- weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth 8 weeks of favorable year-over-year growth
- < img src =" https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/27893593/thumbnail"width="100%"alt="visualization"/ > 10-year yield and mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire projection, I anticipated the following varieties: Mortgage
rates in between 5.75%and 6.75 %The 10-year yield varying in between 3.80%and 4.60%So
- what simply happened recently? Oil costs went parabolic, and mortgage rates were calm in the middle of all the Iran drama and the weak tasks
report on Friday. Last week, my markers for the 10-year yield were that bond traders would be taking the Iran conflict more seriously if the 10-year yield closed above 4.15% and saw follow-through selling in bonds. That didn’t happen since the tasks ‘Friday report was a bust, and bond traders responded to it.But relating to oil prices, my marker was that if rates got over$82, all hell could break loose since if we go more than that, there is no market sense of closure on
the Iran situation, and things can worsen. Oil rose as high as$92 last week and might go even higher this week.Last week saw a 41.6-cent-per-gallon boost in gas rates, according to GasBuddy information, which is amongst the leading 10 most significant weekly boosts in history. I peg this crisis to end 11-14 days from now, due to the fact that if things worsen with oil prices, Republicans risk losing more seats in the midterms. Keep in mind, airline company fuel and diesel, which transfer food, can press the cost of living up greater in the short term. I will be surprised if this lasts more than 2 week if oil prices are elevated and keep increasing. For now, the 10-year yield has actually primarily acted just due to the fact that the jobs information was unfavorable. Rates ended the week at 6.14%, according to Home mortgage News Daily, and Polly’s home mortgage rate lock data shows a weekend rate of 6.14%.
Home mortgage spreads Home loan spreads stay a favorable story for real estate in 2026, reducing mortgage-rate volatility, and are close to regular
levels. Historically, home loan spreads have ranged from 1.60 %to 1.80%. Recently’s spreads closed at 1.94%. If spreads matched the 2023 peak levels,
home loan rates would be 1.17 portion points greater, at 7.31%. With spreads returning to regular, home mortgage rates can stay lower for longer than in previous years. Realistically, we only have 20-34 basis points of enhancement left in the spreads. The longer that volatility is compressed
, the better spreads can get later on in the year, but the huge enhancement here has already run its course.
Weekly housing stock information
Real estate inventory data fell recently, which was a bit of a shock. Hopefully, we will see the conventional seasonal increase in inventory quickly. Inventory is at much healthier levels now than a few years ago. However, if stock doesn’t begin to grow soon, we might have some negative year-over-year stock data toward completion of March or early April.
We have gone from 33% year-over-year growth in stock at the highest point in 2025, to 6.91% last week.
- Weekly inventory modification: (Feb. 27-March 6): Stock fell from 690,357 to 686,879
- Exact same week in 2015: (Feb. 28-March 7): Inventory increased from 639,357 t0 642,479
New listings information New listings information also revealed a strong week-to-week boost recently, while it’s still down year over year. We must get new listings above 80,000 each week during the seasonal peak months, which would be on the low end of the number of brand-new listings we would get in a typical duration.
I am hoping for the brand-new listings data to range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week throughout the seasonal peak durations, as it did from 2013-2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, brand-new listings varied from 250,000 to 400,000 weekly for a number of years.
Here is last week’s new listings information for the past two years:
- 2026: 61,710
- 2025: 63,870
Price-cut percentage Normally, about one-third of homes go through price decreases before they offer, reflecting the vibrant nature of the housing market. As home loan rates and inventory rise together, the percentage of price cuts increases.
However, rates are near multiyear lows, so we are now seeing unfavorable year-over-year price-cut percentage data. This makes sense given that need has gotten a little and stock development has actually slowed. We are starting the seasonal shift higher in the price-cut information, so the year-over-year data will be crucial.
The price-cut portion recently is now 1.25% lower than this time in 2015.
The price-cut portion for last week:
The week ahead: Iran, inflation, existing home sales and real estate starts
To make myself clearer than ever: no existing financial data truly matters as long as this Iranian conflict isn’t dealt with. Oil costs can rise much higher. which suggests higher gas prices, jet fuel, and diesel prices, which can increase food prices. So, even though we have a lot of financial data that will be released today, the Iran conflict is more important.Note that this existing home sales report coming out today is the last report that will consist of the snow effect. You can be sure that, like clockwork, every novice phony housing expert in the U.S. who had no idea why existing home sales fell last month still will not understand why they’re low this month. But you know better because you read this Housing Market Tracker and listen to the HousingWire Daily podcast! So, get your popcorn and view the dreadful takes this week on the information they don’t comprehend, while you’re ready to discuss what’s really occurring.