Surprisingly Light Volatility
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 4:07 PM
Remarkably Light Volatility
Bonds absorbed several huge ticket financial reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that most likely would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks back. However the net impact was an almost completely flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can state bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak action is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than anticipated. This likewise serves as a reminder that Friday’s tasks report is still a relevant market mover regardless of a basic concentrate on the war and energy costs.
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- ADP Work
- 62k vs 40k f’cast, 63k prev
- Retail Sales
- 0.6 vs 0.5 f’cast, -0.2 prev
- Core Retail Sales
- 0.5 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev
- ISM Manufacturing
- ISM Costs Paid
- 78.3 vs 73.0 f’cast, 70.5 prev
- ADP Work
08:24 AM
somewhat more powerful over night with a little bit of offering after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3 bps at 4.301
08:38 AM
Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS the same and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317
11:04 AM
Recovering some ground now. No particular factor. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2 bps at 4.301
01:43 PM
MBS up about an eighth and 10yr approximately unchanged at 4.313
03:23 PM
MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.6 bps at 4.33
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