Some Bond-Specific Weak Point in The Afternoon

Some Bond-Specific Weak Point in The Afternoon

Fri, Jul 10 2026, 3:50 PM

Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon

Oil and Treasury yields were practically perfectly associated for practically the whole week. Friday afternoon was an exception. Oil continued sideways to slightly lower while yields increased a bit. Total damage was negligible, however it was fascinating nonetheless. While there was no clear news or occasion behind the relocation, we can clearly see that it came from the quickest end of the curve and/or Fed rate expectations. Friday afternoon illiquidity likely made the move bigger than it otherwise would have been. As for potential reasons, it could be as easy as dealers positioning for next week’s inflation reports and Warsh testament.

• • Out Of Work Claims (Jul)/ 04
    • 215.0 K vs 218K f’cast, 215K prev

09:11 AM

Unchanged MBS and 10yr down half a bp at 4.548

11:13 AM

MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.553

02:19 PM

MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.4 bps at 4.568

03:35 PM

Off the weakest levels. MBS down a 8th and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.561

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