The centerpiece of the over night news cycle was a report that administration authorities said Trump wants to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Markets rallied almost as much just before the open when Trump said the difficult part is basically done on the Iran war (which other countries must just go take their own oil now, or purchase it from the U.S.). The preliminary relocation took yields from 4.36 to 4.33 and the pre-open rally was 4.34 to 4.30–“moderate,” however significant as it is happening on the day after a currently huge rally. War headings stay in focus regardless of econ data ramping up. If 10am ET task openings data is hot enough, it could command some attention given that the “recession worry” trade is thought to be the essential reason that bond yields defied greater oil rates yesterday.
Today’s charts highlight the correlation that continues to exist in between bonds and oil cost volatility in the short-term, and the absence of that connection over certain, longer amount of time. In other words, markets are still focusing, but the bonds do certainly look increasingly cognizant of growth impacts.
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