Much will depend on how long the dispute continues, according to Oxford Economics lead expert John Canavan, who informed Home loan Expert America a swift end would likely spare any lasting negative impact to the US economy.”It’s difficult to say with any strong conviction where things are headed and it actually is just all dependent on the duration of the war, the period of the reliable closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and what that provides for oil rates,” he said.
“Our basic outlook, however, is presuming that the war is over within the next couple of weeks, the more comprehensive foundations of the economy were quite healthy prior to the war. And we still believe that those elements stay supportive.”
Existing tax procedures could alleviate oil rate impact
If the war were to end fairly rapidly, it would still take time for oil prices to normalize– however that pattern would still limit any damage to the US economy, Canavan said, especially because the United States is not as reliant as other countries on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oxford had a “relatively positive” outlook on the economy prior to the war, he included, thanks in part to supportive tax modifications included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act supplying bigger tax refunds for customers and tax rewards for companies to invest and construct.