Jason Thomas of Carlyle stated he concentrated on “a base case probability of 70% or higher for a protracted uneven project, consisting of cyber activity, terrorism, and proxy forces,” alerting that disturbance might extend well beyond headline chokepoints.
US Treasury yields surged greater at the start of the week as an oil-price spike and renewed conflict in the Middle East exceeded the marketplace’s usual rush into safe possessions, raising fresh concerns for home loan lenders and borrowers.https:// t.co/ 27p6BKz7B1
— Home Mortgage Specialist America Publication (@MPAMagazineUS) March 2, 2026
What it suggests for mortgage brokers
For mortgage producers, the message from markets and policymakers points to a higher‑for‑longer rate backdrop and broader trading varieties, instead of a straight line towards more affordable cash.
Earlier bouts of Middle East tension have not stopped activity completely– home loan application volume even ticked higher “as typical rates edged slightly greater and worldwide unpredictability continued due to ongoing dispute in the Middle East,” Home mortgage Bankers Association information revealed, with FHA re-finances supporting demand.
Still, the mix of persistent inflation, conflict‑driven energy expenses and political pressure on the Fed left little room for complacency on secondary market liquidity or pipeline hedging.
Yet Yellen also worried that, in spite of severe threats, “the United States economy is pretty healthy right now, and I’m pretty positive about the financial outlook.”