Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start

Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start

Thu, Apr 16 2026, 4:26 PM

Volatility Got After a Slow Start

This morning, more than halfway through the global trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range given that February 24th. The low volatility didn’t last. Sellers appeared in reaction to a number of war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil costs higher from 9am through 1pm ET. That said, it was still a relatively light day of motion in bonds with MBS only losing about an eighth of a point depending on when you look and 10yr yields up 3bps at 4.31+ in the last hour of trading.

• • Continued Claims (Apr)/ 04
    • 1818.0 K vs 1810K f’cast, 1794K prev
  • Jobless Claims (Apr)/ 11
    • 207.0 K vs 215K f’cast, 219K prev
  • Philly Fed Business Index (Apr)
    • 26.7 vs 10 f’cast, 18.1 prev
  • Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr)
    • 59.30 vs– f’cast, 44.70 prev

08:30 AM

Quiting over night gains before data and no modification since. MBS the same and 10yr down half a bp at 4.279 (up from lows of 4.265).

10:04 AM

10yr yields moved up 1bp back to the same levels of 4.281 and MBS are now down 1 tick (.03 )

01:16 PM

MBS down an eighth. Lows of the day. 10yr up 3.1 bps at 4.315. Highs of the day.

03:43 PM

Flat afternoon. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.308

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