Home cost gratitude slowed even more in March and through the very first quarter of 2026, according to the most recent data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. While nationwide rates continued to edge greater on a nominal basis, both reports indicated a real estate market having a hard time to maintain momentum as affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on need.
FHFA reported that U.S. house rates increased 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, matching the previous quarter’s annual pace. On a quarterly basis, rates increased 0.5% from Q4 2025, while the firm’s seasonally changed month-to-month index published a modest 0.1% gain in March from February.
Regional FHFA information continued to show a sharply divided housing market. 7 of the 9 census divisions published annual rate gains, led by the East North Central division at +4.4%. By contrast, the West South Central department recorded a 0.7% decline. At the state level, Illinois led yearly gratitude at 7.3%, while Colorado posted the steepest decrease at -2.4%.
Metro-level results reflected similar divergence. FHFA stated home prices increased in 65 of the 100 biggest cities over the past year, with Elgin, Illinois posting the greatest appreciation at 10.8%. On The Other Hand, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas taped the biggest decline at -6.9%, underscoring ongoing softness throughout parts of the Sun Belt.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Rate Index showed a similar pattern of slowing appreciation. The national index increased 0.7% year-over-year in March, down somewhat from February’s 0.8% boost. The 10-City Composite rose 1.4%, while the 20-City Composite increased 0.8%, both slowing from the prior month.
Case-Shiller data revealed the downturn broadening geographically. More than half of the 20 tracked metropolitan areas posted annual rate decreases in March. Seattle recorded the weakest annual performance at -2.5%, followed by Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%). Los Angeles (-1.6%) and Washington (-0.1%) also stayed in unfavorable territory.
Midwest and Northeast markets continued to outperform. Chicago led all significant cities with a 6.1% yearly boost, followed by New york city at 4.0% and Cleveland at 3.0%. The broadening gap in between stronger Midwestern markets and weaker Western and Sun Belt areas continued to highlight how localized real estate conditions have become.
In spite of some seasonal strength in unadjusted spring information, underlying momentum remained weak. After seasonal adjustment, both the nationwide Case-Shiller index and the 20-City Composite published 0.2% regular monthly declines in March, while the 10-City Composite slipped 0.03%. S&P kept in mind that nationwide home prices have actually risen just 0.3% over the past 6 months, recommending the marketplace is effectively at a standstill.
March was the tenth successive month in which inflation outpaced rate gratitude, again leading to genuine home worths declining in March. Combined with mortgage rates that returned toward the mid-6% range by the end of the month, both reports recommend cost pressures stay a significant restraint on purchaser demand and future price growth.
FHFA House Rate Index
- March Mama (SA): +0.1%
- Q1 2026 QoQ: +0.5%
- YoY: +1.7%
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices
- U.S. National YoY: +0.7%
- 10-City Composite YoY: +1.4%
- 20-City Composite YoY: +0.8%
- National Mommy (SA): -0.2%
- 20-City Mama (SA): -0.2%
- 10-City Mama (SA): -0.03%