Bonds began the overnight session by wandering rather higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering decently just before domestic trading started. Yields were still somewhat greater at 7:30 am however moved lower after headlines pointed out rumors that the U.S. accepted lift Iran’s oil sanctions. Subsequent headings pointed out a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-lasting freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and steady reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They’re given that reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires pointing out Iran’s arbitrators as stating U.S. need stay extreme in spite of the changes in the draft proposition.
The chart below programs all 3 sets of newswires and the matching movement in oil/bonds with strong connection.
< img src="http://a.mbslive.net/assets/6a0b23d24d2e2b06d86420b9/6a0b23d24d2e2b06d86420b9.png" alt="20260518 open.png"/ >