Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a common feature of a federal vacation weekend. Due to the fact that tomorrow is totally closed, the big tasks report (generally a Friday affair) was instead released today. It ended up helping rates move lower.
The tasks report (formally “The Work Scenario”) determines brand-new tasks developed (or lost) monthly in addition to the unemployment rate. The task count was much weaker than anticipated and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer individuals considered themselves part of the labor force). In fact, if we adjust for workforce participation, joblessness in fact moved higher.
The tasks report is the most crucial economic data as far as bonds are concerned. And because bonds determine rates, there’s a clear connection to the home loan world. Weaker tasks information = lower rates, all else equal. Today was no exception with MND’s 30yr set rate index removing most of yesterday’s spike.