“One of the worst things you can do to negatively impact inflation is adversely impacting the cost of energy that’s used to move products around the nation and around the globe,” Nurani said. “That’s precisely what’s happened right now. Therefore when you do that, when oil costs more, it costs more to move your toilet paper, more to move your eggs, more to move your automobiles, everything costs more to transport.”
What it implies for brokers
The Fed has actually held rates constant at 3.50% to 3.75% because the start of 2026, stopping briefly after three consecutive cuts to liquidate 2025. The April meeting ended with 4 dissents, and authorities have said consistently that they need to see inflation cooling before they move again.
May’s information does not provide that. The 12-month reading has now accelerated for two straight months, and energy rates reveal no indication of drawing back. Markets are currently pricing in the shift. CME FedWatch reveals simply a 3.8% chance of a rate cut at next week’s conference, and traders are pricing in a rate hike as soon as December.
Hepp said the real estate market is discovering its footing, however the financing environment is not making it easy.
“Cotality’s latest data indicate a real estate market that is supporting, albeit unevenly,” Hepp said. “National home rates are up 0.3% year-over-year, and the breadth of decreases across markets continues to narrow. However, the nationwide typical masks considerable regional divergence. Markets in the West and parts of the Midwest– where task and income growth stay strong– are still seeing price strength and even modest appreciation.