What’s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.
? Mon, Jun 22 2026, 4:49 PM
What’s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?
On the typical trading day in the previous couple of months, if oil rates were down, and specifically if other bond markets were rallying, U.S. bonds were most likely rallying too. Today was the opposite and there are no glaringly apparent factors. It’s the sort of trading session where experts must go hunting for narratives to fit the unexpected trading action. The quarry of such hunts is fairly limited. There’s the idea of an “ongoing response to recently’s Fed statement” (which we do not enjoy thinking about there was already a friendly bounce on Thursday) and from there things get even less concrete, though not always incorrect. The upcoming Treasury auction cycle might undoubtedly be triggering some hesitation to purchase the start of the week. There’s also some buzz surrounding military re-provisioning, which continues to imply ever-higher federal government debt issuance (a double whammy on auction week). In any case, the current range stayed easily intact, so while it’s a downer for today, it’s not exactly an emergency situation.
08:51 AM
Weaker over the weekend. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.8 bps at 4.493
12:23 PM
MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.3 bps at 4.508
03:41 PM
MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.2 bps at 4.508
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